Five Incorrect Craps Beliefs

Craps is a wonderful game where the player has a great chance to beat the house.  Craps is simultaneously a horrible game where monstrous house edges eat away at a player’s bankroll until it exists no more.

How can the same game be both glorious and forbidding? Because craps has so many different bets, some few which are good but most which are bad, that many craps players, not understanding or appreciating the math of the game and its impact on their bankrolls, will jump into the deep end of Lady Luck’s pool without a life jacket. None of the following are advantage bets:

Stupid Craps Strategy # 1: See a Number bet that Number!

Unfortunately unwary craps players, sadly adhering to foolish schemes such as numbers predictably getting hot promulgated by craps know-nothings, will go up against edges in the double figures. Such Everest-like edges are as great as or greater than slot-machine edges!

So why do craps players, many of whom are bright in their non-casino lives, make such foolish bets as the one-roll Horn bet (the numbers 2, 3, 11, and 12) after seeing a Horn number appear? One answer has to do with how the house edge actually works. In the short run play of the game certain streaks will happen that can blind the player. One or several Horn numbers might have just hit and the player thinks, “This is a streak that will continue!”

The player in this case is absolutely wrong. The streak might continue or it might not continue. In a random game there is no predictability, only probability. The Horn numbers have six ways of being made, which is about 17 percent of the time. In the long run that 17 percent give or take a fraction will be how often that Horn appears. And the house will take a nice fat cut when the Horn actually does appear. How much of a cut? Well, 12.5 percent. So if you bet $100 on the Horn every time a Horn number has just appeared you can expect to lose $12.50.

But players see a “winning hit or a winning streak” and have no idea that the house is grinding them down slowly but surely. The best way to think of gambling edges is to realize that every time you make that Horn bet you are losing 12.5 percent of your bet – whether you win the bet or lose the bet! The house edge works on the total amount wagered, not this or that win or loss.

So a player buying into this stupid strategy will lose. If he bets a Horn every time he sees a Horn, given a craps game with 120 decisions per hour, our bettor will see a Horn number appear 20 times and then bet on half of them. If our bettor dumps $10 on those 10 Horns his expected loss is $12.50 per hour. That’s too heavy a loss indeed.

Stupid Strategy # 2: Place Bets are Better Than Come Bets!

After the shooter has established his point and the player wishes to get up on other numbers, there are two ways to do this – he can make Come bets, where he puts his wager in the Come box and waits for the number to be established by the shooter’s subsequent throw or he can simply Place the number directly.

Many wacky gaming “authorities” believe that Place bets are better than Come bets because you can go up on whatever numbers you like, whereas the Come bet’s destination is solely in the hands of the shooter. Unfortunately the Place bets have such high house edges that selective betting does not overcome the low house edge of the Come bets.

Let’s see how this works.

A Come bet has a house edge of 1.41 percent. The Placing of the 6 or 8 has a house edge of 1.52 percent. The Come bet will lose a $10 player 14 cents each and every time he makes it. However, the player who places the 6 or 8 must place these numbers in multiples of six dollars. Thus, a $12 Place bet will lose the player 18 cents.

From there it gets worse. The placement of the 5 and 9 comes in with a four percent house edge. Our $10 Place bettor will lose 40 cents on each of these numbers. The placement of the 4 and 10 comes in with a whopping house edge of 6.67 percent so our player now loses about 67 cents for such placements.

Would you rather lose 14 cents or would you rather lose 18 cents, or 40 cents, or 67 cents?

In a random game, Place betting is far worse than Come betting; which is the end of the story.

What about the idea that you can take down your Place bets and that makes them superior? Sounds good but I have never seen a player take down his or her bets enough times to make Place betting superior to Pass and Come betting.

Stupid Strategy #3: Bet with the House and Beat the Game!

 There are some misguided players who believe that they can actually beat a random game of craps by betting the “don’t” or Darkside of the game. Here a player is betting that the shooter won’t make his point or number and will seven out – in which case the Darkside player wins.

Unfortunately, you cannot beat craps by betting the Darkside either. The very first placement of the Don’t Pass or Don’t Come brings the house edge hammering on your head because you will lose this first placement eight times and win it only three times. While the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come are actually good bets, the stupid notion is that somehow these bets are making you play on the casino’s side, guaranteeing a win.

Not so – the casino doesn’t need you as a partner, doesn’t want you as a partner, but prefers to take your Darkside money too.

Stupid Strategy #4: Increase Bets When the Table Gets Hot!

 Let me put this in flaming terms: The table never gets hot. Now in icy terms: The table also never gets cold. The table is just a table. Random shooters who have just hit 100 numbers without the appearance of a 7 have a 17 percent chance of hitting that 7 on the very next roll. They also had a 17 percent chance of hitting that 7 on the first roll, the second roll, the 40th roll, and the 73rd roll and with every other number up and down the line.

Every time you increase your bet because of what you just saw a random shooter do is simply losing you more money. If you had a Place bet of the 6 for $12 and you increased that bet to $24 because a 6 just hit a couple of times, the casino is going to extract 36 cents from that $24.

One more time: It is the total amount you bet that the house edge works on – whether you win or lose the bet is irrelevant! Therefore, increasing your bets into a random shooter will just lose you more money in the long run.

Stupid Strategy #5: In the Short Run All Bets are the Same!

 No, they aren’t. The following bets will give you a much lower chance of winning on any given session: the Any 7 (16.67 percent house edge), the 2 or 12 (13.89 percent), the Horn (12.5 percent), the 3 or 11 (11.11 percent house edge), Hard 10 or Hard 4 (11.11 percent), Any Craps (11.11 percent), Hard 6 and Hard 8 (9.09 percent) and on down the line it goes.

If you want to be a smart craps player then limit yourself to the good house edge bets like the Pass and Come or Don’t Pass and Don’t Come. Take the maximum in odds behind these bets and you will be giving the house a tough game – and giving yourself a decent chance of coming home a winner.

Even in the short run, bad is bad and good is good. Keep that in mind the next time you think of making a stupid craps bet.

Frank’s latest books are Confessions of a Wayward Catholic; I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps, and I Am a Card Counter: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Blackjack. Available from, Kindle, Barnes and Noble, e-books and at bookstores.





9 thoughts on “Five Incorrect Craps Beliefs”

  1. Would you say that putting a Don’t Pass bet on a random roller would have more advantage or edge over the Pass Line bet? This has kinda been my strategy when there has been random rollers, but I’m not betting more than $5 with no more than $30 odds.

    Also, just a thank you to you. I’ve read your book “Casino Craps, Shoot to win”, and it’s been a huge help to my game. I read different parts of it at least 5-10 times a week. I bought it in January of last year. I have been going to the casino about once a month since then and have been getting much better. Just in the past few weeks I’ve really honed in on my throw finally and tweaked most of my mistakes. Just last week I rolled “all” for the bonus on my first roll using just the 3V set. I only start with $300 every time I go, and right now I can say I’ve finally evened up with the casino. So, I’m going to start and try to play a little more aggressive. Hopefully that $300 can soon become $1000 to start. I’ve become a firm believer in what you’re teaching, but at the same time it’s like everything else, like you say, it takes practice.

    1. The Don’t will give you a couple of tenths of a better deal against random players. Just bet one bet on them and save your money for your own rolls.

  2. Just bought your book ( I am a dice controller) Great book. i am just starting to shoot crap very seriously. Have a 6ft practice table on order. I read in your book every day many times a day. Thanks for the great advice that you give in the book. Will keep you posted as to how the practice is going when I get my table. If you ever have training sessions in Florida please let me know.

  3. Come VS place bets: The key is your ROI not the house %. The place better wins a higher ROI ( return on investment) than the come/pass line better up to 5X odds. I saw a chart in a new book Platinum Craps & Dice setting that shows the player a chart and the ROI. Example: You take a $5.00 come bet on the 6 or 8. You take $5.00 odds. The place better places the 5 or 8 for $6.00. The come better wins ONLY even money on the $5.00 and $6.00 on his odds bet he bet $10.00 to win $11.00 That is a ROI of $110% The place better win $7.00 for his $6.00 place bet. That is an ROI of 166.66% 166.66 ROI is higher than an ROI of 110%.. The key is how much are you winning and what is your ROI. You are better winning a higher ROI and not worry about that small %. PLUS the place better wins on every roll and has options, same bet, up one unit, take me down. The come better MUST take his bet down and start all over. AND come bets work on the first roll of the game and place bets do not. That is when the shooter wants to roll a 7 is on the first roll of the game. The place better wins more ( up to 5x odds) and has options. the come/passline better does not have those options. Thank you

  4. Sorry correction The ROI for the place better on the 6 or 8 is 116.66% ( Hit the wrong key) It does matter if he bets $6.00, $12.00, $60.00 or $600.00 his ROI will always be 116.66% ( 7 divided 6 =116.66%) The ROI changes with the come better from 110% at 1X to 113% at 2X to 115% at 3X and so on. The come better does not reach an ROI of 116.66% until he bets 5X odds on the 6 or 8. This is why the casino put a limit on how many times odds the player can bet. At 100X odds he wins 119.8% BUT most players do not have the bankroll for 100X odds.

    1. Yes this is true. The place better has many more options than the come/pass line better and WINS more money and a higher return on investment. The come bets work on the first roll of the game as well so when the shooter rolls a 7 ( that is when you want the 7) he loses all of his come bets, ( keeps the odds) and down goes everything. Now he has to start all over again. Plus you have to roll a come bet TWICE to win. Once to get that bet into play and then a second time to collect. The place better wins on every roll. Too many players out the small house % vig ahead of the large ROI. Play for more money and not a small house advantage. Play smarter not harder!!!

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