Gambling with Coronavirus

The estimates for how many people will get the coronavirus range from 40 percent to 80 percent. This is the worldwide estimate. Based on our current knowledge of the disease, approximately two percent of the people who get this virus will die.

At first you might think that two percent is a very low number and that we really have nothing to worry about. Not so. Two percent is a large number.

Let us split the difference between 40 and 80 percent of world population getting the virus and calculate the deaths from those numbers. We’ll say 60 percent of the world will be infected. Since there are 7.5 billion people on earth, then 4.5 billion people will get the disease and with a two percent death rate that translates into 90 million people dying.

In blackjack, an advantage player using card counting can expect to earn between one-half and 1.5 percent of the money he wagers. Yes, casinos will throw out a card counter for having that kind of edge over them. Big money can be earned with such a small edge over the casino. So what sounds small is not really all that small. Two percent is a big number.

If your expectation is to die two percent of the time when you switch on a light; you’d probably forgo switching lights on. If you can expect to die two percent of the time when you turn on your car, you’d probably take up walking.

And 90 million people is certainly no small number of deaths.

The population of the United States is 330 million. If 60 percent get the virus that means 198 million Americans will catch it, of which approximately 3,960,000 will die.

Obviously it is important to do everything possible to slow the spread of this virus. A vaccine will take at least a year to get on the market and we have no idea if any of the “anti-virals” about which folks have been talking will work on this disease.

It is up to each one of us, including those sad excuses for intelligent beings partying in the parks, on the beaches, and on the boats, to take seriously the threat to 330 million Americans and those 7.5 billion people on our planet. Distance yourselves, wash your hands, and follow the advice of those who know a lot more about pandemics than we do.

Frank Scoblete’s web site is www.frankscoblete.com. His books are available on Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, kindle, e-books and at bookstores.